Title: Forensics to Prognostics: From investigating failures to anticipating the vulnerabilities of increasingly complex systems

Author(s): Graham R Braithwaite

Publication Event: Proceedings of the Twenty-seventh Safety-Critical Systems Symposium, Bristol, UK

Publication Date: 2019-02-07

Resource URL: https://scsc.uk/r1078.pdf

Abstract:

In the United Kingdom, the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) can trace its origins back to 1915. Its purpose is the investigation of accidents and serious incidents; not to allocate blame or liability, but to prevent future occurrences. A similar approach has been adopted in other sectors with the equivalent Branches for Marine and Rail starting in the UK in 1989 and 2005 respectively. By conducting deep forensic examination of occurrences and through making recommendations to regulators, manufacturers, operators and service providers, the transport investigation branches and their international equivalents have, arguably, managed to make a significant contribution to safety. For example, 2017 represented a new milestone in terms of commercial air transport safety: According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA, 2018), there were no fatalities on jet transport aircraft and a total of just 45 accidents worldwide (down from an average of 75 per year in each of the preceding five years).