Title: Chances, Confidence and Risks Analysis:The Chance of Covid-19 Infection in the Day Care of Very Young Children

Author(s): Peter Bernard Ladkin

Publication Event: Proceedings of the Twenty-ninth Safety-Critical Systems Symposium

Publication Date: 2021-02-09

Resource URL: https://scsc.uk/r1325.pdf

Abstract:

Day carers of young children are likely more at risk of Covid-19 infection from their children as are kindergarten and school teachers, because of the intimate contact and relative lack of protection. Whether political decisions as to their risks coincide with their actual risks is hitherto unknown, as indeed is the case for many key workers. I attempt to calculate those chances from parameter estimates as given in the medical-scientific literature, as well as imbue the estimates with a discrete confidence level. The approach I use is applicable to many safety-critical interaction contexts but until now is not to be found in the literature.